National home values are expected to rise only 1.2%, sales will tick up slightly, and rent growth will be mild. On paper, that sounds calm. But if you’re a community trying to produce homes for your workforce or compete for talent, the story underneath the forecast is something else entirely:

Builders are slowing down. Lenders are tightening. Development costs are not falling. Demand is still real, but supply isn’t coming.

This is the moment where cities and counties must move from observers to market makers.

And that’s the work we do every day.

Housing From an Internal Locus of Control

For too long, local leaders have been trained to view housing from an external locus of control:

• Interest rates are high.

• Builders aren’t building.

• Cost of labor and materials keeps rising.

• Developers say projects don’t pencil.

• State and federal programs are unpredictable.

  
  

All true — and all outside your control.

But here’s the truth we teach in every cohort, every POD session, every Housing Activation Committee:

When you shift to an internal locus of control, the conversation changes:

• What assets do we control today?

• What barriers can we remove locally?

• What financing gaps can we close with creativity instead of waiting?

• How do we activate the buyers and renters who already live and work here?

• How do we build a production system—not just a plan?

That’s the difference between admiring the problem and solving it.

And that’s where our ecosystem comes in.

Why 2026 Is the Year for Market Making

Where national forecasts see “slower construction,” we see opportunity.

Where analysts see “flat appreciation,” we see predictability — the very thing builders and lenders need when they’re asked to try something new, like missing-middle housing or workforce homeownership.

Where others see “rent relief,” we see a moment to build a stable pipeline of first-time buyers.

The lack of speculative frenzy actually helps communities who are ready to lead. It rewards discipline. It rewards systems. It rewards collaboration. And it rewards places willing to step into the driver’s seat.

The Role of a Market-Making Partner

Every community has demand. Every community has land. Every community has employers who need workers. Every community has families trying to buy or rent homes they can afford.

But very few communities have a housing production system.

That’s why we exist.

Through:

• Mission BUILD (capital stacking, builder training, catalyst sites)

• Club 720 (buyer and renter activation, lender-realtor-builder pipelines, DPA integration, employer partnerships)

• Housing Resource Hub (local government readiness, zoning audits, HPP + DAP + TPA frameworks)

…we help communities build the ongoing capacity to shape their own market outcomes, regardless of national trends.

You don’t control interest rates. But you do control how ready your buyers are. You don’t control construction costs. But you do control how predictable and supported your builders feel. You don’t control whether developers show up. But you do control whether you create the conditions that make building here a smart choice.

This is internal locus of control in action.

What Community Leaders Should Do Heading Into 2026

Here’s what separates winning communities in the next cycle:

1. Activate Your Buyer and Renter Pipeline

If people can’t qualify, they can’t close — and your projects stall. 2026 will reward communities that intentionally build buyer readiness.

2. Establish a Housing Activation Committee (HAC)

A standing body that removes local barriers, aligns stakeholders, and monitors production targets.

3. Create a Demand Activation Plan and Housing Production Plan

National trends don’t build houses — plans plus action do.

4. Identify Your Catalyst Sites and Bring Them Through Predevelopment

Zoning, patterns, cost books, and capital stacks must be ready before capital can flow.

5. Build a Closing Team Network

Lenders + realtors + builders trained in your local production system.

6. Treat Housing as Infrastructure

Not charity. Not a program. A system that must run 365 days a year.

2026 Doesn’t Have to Happen To You

Zillow’s analysts are doing their job: they explain what the macro market might do.

Our job — and yours — is different.

We build local markets. We activate demand. We unlock supply. We create the conditions for production to happen — even when the national market cools.

2026 can be a turning point for communities that choose to lead.

Not because the forecast is favorable. But because they finally stop waiting for someone else to fix their housing problem.

This is the year to take the wheel. And we’re ready to build it with you.

Sidebar What Zillow Got Right — and What They Missed

What Zillow Got Right

• Stability is returning. A forecast of 1.2% home-value growth and modest sales increases points to a calmer market, which is helpful for underwriting, buyer readiness, and builder confidence.

  
  

• Rent relief is real. With multifamily rent growth around 0.3%, renters may finally get some breathing room — opening the door for more to consider homeownership.

  
  

• Construction slowdown is significant. Zillow notes 2026 may be the slowest year for single-family starts since before the pandemic. Communities must take this seriously.

  
  

• Regional variation matters. Not all markets behave the same. National predictions hide local opportunity.

What Zillow Missed

• They read the market; they don’t build it. Zillow doesn’t address what communities can do to change their outcomes. That’s where the H.O.M.E. Method lives.

  
  

• Demand activation is invisible in national forecasts. If you activate 3,000 renters and 400 first-time buyers in a county, your housing market behaves differently than national averages.

  
  

• Builder behavior isn’t just about interest rates. It’s about risk, predictability, and capacity — all things a community can influence with the right system.

  
  

• Local capital stacking can change the math. National analysts assume the developer is alone. We assume the community is part of the stack.

  
  

• Forecasts don’t see missing-middle opportunities. Zillow reports on inventory and prices — but not the structural gap in “chili sauce” products we help communities to normalize.

  
  

• No national model accounts for Hubs. No forecast shows what happens when a community builds a pipeline, trains a Closing Team, activates its buyers, and brings Mission BUILD to the table.

In other words: