The Housing Market Is Shifting — But Affordability Isn’t. Here’s What Communities Need to Know.

By Heather Presley-Cowen

The latest housing numbers are in, and national headlines are calling it a buyer’s market. On the surface, that sounds like great news. More inventory. Less bidding-war chaos. A little price flexibility.

But community leaders who are serious about solving their local housing shortages need to know the truth beneath the headline:

• The market is softening… but affordability is not improving.

• Demand is there… but it’s locked behind financing barriers.

• Opportunities are emerging… but only communities with a system in place will capture them.

This is where the numbers matter and where the work we’re doing through the H.O.M.E. Method, Mission BUILD, and Club 720 Hubs becomes even more critical.

What the Data Really Says

Recent industry analysis shows a significant shift:

• There were 36.8% more sellers than buyers going into the fall, representing the largest gap in a decade.

• Homes are sitting longer, selling closer to list price, or selling below it.

• Builders are offering incentives, buydowns, and price reductions to move inventory.

• Yet household affordability has barely budged due to persistent price inflation, insurance costs, and mortgage rates that remain higher than average.

In short: We have a buyer’s market for qualified buyers — and a locked market for everyone else.

Communities that assume this shift will solve their housing problems on its own are going to be disappointed. Communities that act on it? They win big.

Why This Matters for Local Housing Strategy

1. Demand must be activated...not assumed.

Even in a softening market, buyers don’t magically appear. They need credit repair, down payment support, and coaching.

This is why every community needs a Housing Activation Committee (HAC) and a Club 720 Hub strategy.

A buyer’s market without buyer readiness is still a stalled market.

2. Builders will feel pressure...and that opens the door.

When builders have unsold units, they become more open to:

• new partnerships

• new housing types

• mixed-income deals

• shared-risk capital stacks

• pattern-book construction

• partnering with Mission BUILD as owner’s rep to move projects forward

This is a moment for communities to approach builders with solutions, not more studies.

3. Capital stacking becomes more complex...and more valuable.

Slower absorption and softer pricing require stronger:

• TIF support

• employer matching

• land strategy

• fee waivers

• shared risk funds

• down payment assistance

• layered financing

This is where the Five Layer Capital Stack and Gating Process shine. Communities that don’t know how to stack capital will see projects collapse. Communities that do will accelerate housing production.

4. Housing production cannot slow down.

The need is still massive. A temporary buyer’s market doesn’t change the fundamental shortage created over the last decade.

We cannot let this moment reduce momentum. We use it to buy down risk, train new builders, and deliver missing-middle housing at scale.

What Communities Should Do Right Now

Here’s the playbook for the next 90 days:

1. Map where inventory is rising.

Identify ZIP codes with the highest build-up of listings. Overlay that with your Club 720 buyer pipeline. The gaps will show you your activation targets.

2. Launch your Housing Activation Committee (HAC).

This creates structure, accountability, and momentum. It also prepares your partners for the buyer pipeline coming through Club 720.

3. Make sure your lender partners are ready.

This is the time for:

• buydowns

• portfolio products

• innovative underwriting

• special DPA pathways

If you want to win, you need lender partners willing to innovate.

4. Accelerate catalyst sites.

Builders are more open to partnership now than six months ago. Use that leverage.

5. Fully activate Club 720 locally.

Use it to:

• build a ready buyer pipeline

• provide coaching

• guide renters into pathways

• match households with programs

• unlock down payment assistance

A buyer’s market is only an opportunity for communities that have activated buyers.

Final Thought

A buyer’s market is not the same as an affordable market. But it is an opportunity — a rare one — for communities that are organized, strategic, and ready to move.

This moment favors the communities with:

✔️ a system

✔️ a pipeline

✔️ a production strategy

✔️ a Housing Resource Hub

And that is exactly the work we are doing together with our local government partners throughout Indiana and beyond.