Why Builders Still Won’t Build in 2026... And What Communities Can Do About It

Even with the calmer national forecast for 2026 (see my last blog for more on this), many local leaders are already asking the same question:

“If things are stabilizing, why aren’t builders leaning in?”

It’s a fair question, especially when your employers are desperate for workers, your families are desperate for affordable homes, and your community has land ready to go.

But here’s the truth:

Builders still won’t build - not at the price points where the need is greatest - unless the community becomes their market-making partner.

Let’s break down why, and more importantly, what to do about it.

Reason #1: The Math Isn’t Mathing

A 1.2% home-value increase does nothing to solve the fundamental gap between:

• the cost to build

• the price your workforce can afford

• the appraised value in your market

Zillow’s forecast doesn’t change that triangle.

That’s why Mission BUILD exists: to structure capital so the deal can close, not die.

What communities can do: Use the H.O.M.E. Method to understand your gaps, then assemble a stack that de-risks your partners. Local dollars → lower builder risk → real production.

Reason #2: Builders Fear the Unknown

Builders know how to do “ketchup”: single-family homes, rental apartments.

They don’t know how to do “chili sauce” or “hot sauce”: duplexes, triplexes, ADUs, stacked flats, bungalow courts.

Uncertainty = risk. Risk = no thanks.

What communities can do: Normalize these products. Use pattern books, cost books, and builder academies to show builders: “You don’t have to experiment - we already built the playbook.”

Reason #3: Capacity Is Stretched Thin

2026 will still be a year of:

• labor shortages

• supply-chain inconsistencies

• financing delays

• thin margins

A builder only has so much bandwidth. They choose the projects with the least friction.

What communities can do: Become a “no-friction” zone by building a Housing Activation Committee (HAC) that clears barriers before construction begins. Make it easier to build in your community than anywhere else.

Reason #4: There’s No Guaranteed Buyer Pipeline

Builders build when they know units will move.

Zillow forecasts don’t capture market potential, buyer readiness or DPA access - yet those factors determine absorption.

What communities can do: Activate your buyer pipeline through Club 720. A community with 200 ready buyers is a magnet for builders.

Reason #5: Developers Don’t Want to Go First

Every community has a “first developer premium.” First movers take the most risk and get the least reward.

What communities can do: Use Mission BUILD as your developer’s developer - to model the product, de-risk the land, and prove the market so the private sector can follow.

The Fix: Become a Market Maker, Not a Market Watcher

2026 is not a year to wait and see.

It’s a year to:

• Activate buyers

• Clear local barriers

• Prepare catalyst sites

• Train builders

• Build a Closing Team

• Attract lenders

• Stack capital with confidence

If you do these things, your community can (and will) produce new homes even in a “low-growth” national market.

If you don’t, you’ll get whatever the national market gives you.

And as we’ve seen, the national market rarely delivers the units working families need.

The Bottom Line

Builders won’t build until the conditions are right.

And conditions become right when communities take control of their housing futures.

If 2026 is the year Zillow says the market stabilizes, then let 2026 also be the year your community stabilizes into a true housing production system. Because stability isn’t the end goal. Production is.